Government AI Governance & Research

Most agencies haven't replaced a human decision with AI… yet.

Organizations moving toward automating decisions face a hard question: can they prove the AI decides better than the humans it seeks to replace?

The GIAG research program gives government AI leaders an evidence base for adoption decisions, built from practitioner data, independent of vendor marketing.

Explore Our Research Join a Research Initiative Subscribe to Newsletter

Why It Matters

Governance without measurement is aspiration without accountability.

Federal mandates, OMB guidance, and NIST frameworks have established the what of AI governance. ThinkCapital's research program is focused on the harder questions: the how, the how much, and the how do we know. We work at the intersection of measurement science, organizational behavior, and government IT, producing frameworks practitioners can actually use.

The questions worth asking before the next investment decision:

  • When an AI initiative stalls or underperforms, do you know which adoption threshold it's approaching, and why agencies fail to cross it?
  • Is your AI governance framework built on evidence and measurement, or on policy compliance and good intentions?
  • Does your agency have the institutional capacity to provide meaningful human oversight of AI, or is that oversight nominal?
  • How will you know when your agency's AI maturity has advanced enough to justify the next level of investment?
View Research Program → Reference Body of Knowledge
GIAG — A ThinkCapital Research Program

ThinkCapital Research Initiatives

Active & Forming Research Streams

These are the current focus areas driving ThinkCapital's research agenda. Visit individual initiative pages to read full descriptions, track progress, or express your interest in participating.

● Active

NIST AI RMF Implementation in Government Contexts

Examining how the NIST AI Risk Management Framework is actually being adopted, or not, across federal and state agencies, and what factors predict successful operationalization.

Read Initiative → Express Interest
● Active

Meaningful Human Oversight: From Requirement to Practice

What does meaningful human oversight of AI actually look like in operational government settings? We are developing measurable indicators and maturity criteria.

Read Initiative → Express Interest
◌ Forming

AI Adoption Thresholds & Organizational Tipping Points

Applying Schelling-Granovetter threshold models to explain why identical AI initiatives succeed in some agencies and stall in others, and how to move the needle.

Read Initiative → Express Interest
◌ Forming

AI Productivity Measurement for Government Missions

Developing empirical methods for measuring whether AI tools are delivering measurable productivity improvements in government mission contexts, beyond technology metrics alone.

Read Initiative → Express Interest

Advisory Services

Need help now, before the research is finished?

ThinkCapital also provides direct advisory services to government agencies and their contractors navigating AI governance, technology investment decisions, and organizational readiness. Our work is grounded in the same measurement discipline as our research.

See Our Services Who We Are

"The agencies that will lead in AI are not the ones that move fastest — they are the ones that measure best."

ThinkCapital Research Perspective

Get Involved

Questions, comments, or ready to engage?

Whether you want to follow our research, participate in an initiative, or simply ask a question, the Engage page is where conversations begin.

Go to the Engage Page →